Ahead of Tuesday night’s League Cup semi-final first leg at the Emirates Stadium, we preview the Arsenal vs Newcastle match. Can Newcastle secure a strong result to take back to St James’ Park for the second leg next month?
Arsenal vs Newcastle Stats: Key Insights
According to the Opta supercomputer, Arsenal are favored to win the first leg, with a 63.1% chance of victory in pre-match simulations. Newcastle, on the other hand, has struggled in recent away games against Arsenal, losing 12 of their last 13 encounters at the Emirates (D1), with their last win coming in November 2010.
Newcastle’s Alexander Isak, who scored the only goal in their Premier League win over Arsenal this season, could become the first Newcastle player since Laurent Robert in 2001-02 to score against the Gunners in two different games in a single season. Isak has been in great form, finding the net in 11 of his last 14 competitive appearances.
Arsenal, though, are also in excellent form, particularly up front. Gabriel Jesus, despite not scoring in their recent 1-1 draw against Brighton, has netted six goals in his last five matches. In the League Cup this season, he’s been involved in 13 goals in his last nine starts (11 goals, 2 assists).
This marks Newcastle’s third League Cup semi-final appearance, with the team progressing to the final in both previous instances (1975-76 vs Tottenham and 2022-23 vs Southampton). A win would give them a chance at their first-ever League Cup title. Arsenal, winners of the competition in 1993, are also in good form, having scored 11 goals in their recent victories.
Arsenal will be without Bukayo Saka due to a thigh injury, along with Ben White, Takehiro Tomiyasu, and Raheem Sterling. Kai Havertz, who missed the last two games due to illness, may return, but Ethan Nwaneri could be sidelined after a muscle injury. Jurriën Timber will be available after serving a suspension.
Newcastle will be missing key players, with Fabian Schär and Bruno Guimarães suspended. Sven Botman will undergo a fitness test after picking up an injury in their 2-1 win over Tottenham.
Arsenal vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Newcastle has struggled at the Emirates in recent years, losing 12 of their last 13 away matches in all competitions, with a 1-0 victory in November 2010 being the only exception. Their last trip ended in a 4-1 defeat, with Joe Willock’s late goal being a mere consolation. However, Newcastle managed a 1-0 win against Arsenal earlier this season, with the Gunners having just one shot on target throughout the game.
Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction
The Opta supercomputer predicts Arsenal to win the first leg, with a 63.1% chance of victory, while Newcastle has a 17.3% chance of winning, and a draw is predicted 19.6% of the time.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings assign ability scores to teams, with rankings updated daily. As of January 6, 2025, the current power rankings are available for both teams.
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