Champions League Knockout Stage Overview
The 2024-25 Champions League knockout rounds have arrived, and fans and analysts are actively predicting the tournament’s outcome. Initially, many believed Real Madrid would dominate after securing Kylian Mbappé in the summer, but their inconsistent performances have raised doubts. Meanwhile, Liverpool’s exceptional start has led some to believe Arne Slot’s squad could claim the title.
Following the conclusion of the revamped league phase, which saw unexpected contenders like Brest and Monaco emerge, The Sun’s Supercomputer has simulated the rest of the tournament to determine the most likely champions. By running 10,000 simulations, data analysts have projected where teams are expected to finish and ranked their chances of lifting the trophy. While some fanbases may be disappointed by their team’s odds, others could be pleasantly surprised.
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Final League Phase Standings
With the initial stage wrapped up, eight teams have secured direct passage to the knockout rounds, while those ranked 9th-24th must compete in a playoff for a spot in the Round of 16.
Liverpool and Barcelona topped the table, positioning themselves for an easier path to the final in Munich. Other strong performers included Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atlético Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, and Lille—who shocked defending champions Real Madrid with a 1-0 win.
Meanwhile, major clubs like Bayern Munich, PSG, Manchester City, and Real Madrid must go through an extra playoff match after failing to meet expectations. Manchester City, in particular, needed a dramatic comeback against Club Brugge to secure progression on the final matchday.
Final Standings
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Predicted Champions: Arsenal Favored to Claim First European Title
According to the Supercomputer, Arsenal is predicted to capitalize on their strong league-phase performance and win their first-ever European title. The Gunners, who have long been mocked for their lack of European success, have been given a 24% chance of winning. Liverpool, aiming for a record-extending seventh title, follows closely with a 19% chance.
Despite recent struggles, Manchester City and Real Madrid are still among the top contenders, although both must first navigate the playoff round. The Supercomputer gives Real Madrid an 11% chance of winning, while City’s odds stand at 7%.
Predicted Champions League Winner Probabilities
As the knockout rounds begin, Arsenal and Liverpool lead the way as favorites, while traditional powerhouses like Real Madrid, PSG, and Bayern Munich face an uphill battle to reclaim European glory.