Opta reveals why Liverpool are favourites to defeat Newcastle at Anfield
Liverpool backed to beat Newcastle at Anfield despite patchy league form
Liverpool are favourites to overcome Newcastle United on Saturday, and Opta’s stats reveal why—even amid a shaky Premier League run. The clash is crucial for European qualification, with Liverpool sitting sixth on 36 points and Newcastle ninth on 33.
The timing is notable: Liverpool cruised past Qarabag 6-0 in the Champions League midweek, yet league performances since the new year have been far less convincing. Opta’s preview captures this contrast, describing the Reds as “in desperate need of a win” after the Bournemouth defeat, while noting they are “winless in their last five league games.”
Why Opta still favour Liverpool
Opta’s model gives Liverpool a 52.4% chance of victory, versus 23.3% for Newcastle, with a 24.3% chance of a draw. These figures reflect more than recent results—they account for team strength, venue, and historical performance patterns.
Newcastle’s own struggles tip the scales further: they have “failed to score in their previous two Premier League outings,” making a Liverpool win more likely despite the Reds’ inconsistent form. Pundit Chris Sutton agrees, predicting a narrow home victory: “Even if Bruno Guimaraes is fit, I still fancy Liverpool here.”
Anfield history gives Liverpool an edge
Historical trends make Liverpool strong favourites. Opta highlight that the Reds are unbeaten in the last 18 top-flight matches against Newcastle (13 wins, 5 draws), a run that spans managers and squads.
At Anfield specifically, Newcastle have failed to win any of their last 29 league visits (5 draws, 24 losses), one of their joint-longest away winless runs against any opponent. Liverpool already beat Newcastle 3-2 at St James’ Park in August, so a win on Saturday would complete a Premier League double.
Head-to-head highlights
25 Aug 2025: Newcastle 2-3 Liverpool, Premier League
16 Mar 2025: Liverpool 2-1 Newcastle, League Cup final
26 Feb 2025: Liverpool 2-0 Newcastle, Premier League
04 Dec 2024: Newcastle 3-3 Liverpool, Premier League
01 Jan 2024: Liverpool 4-2 Newcastle, Premier League
Even “messy” games against Newcastle have usually favoured Liverpool, with goals and opportunities eventually falling their way.
The caveat
Sutton also warns of Liverpool’s tendency to follow a big European performance with a subdued league display: “Liverpool walloped Qarabag in midweek, but one of their issues this season has been following up good European wins with similar league results the next weekend.”
That’s the tension heading into Saturday: Opta back a Liverpool win, history favours Anfield, but the Reds must still prove they can bring Champions League-level sharpness to Premier League pressure.