Opta forecast lays out Liverpool’s objective ahead of Marseille showdown

 

 

Liverpool’s Champions League trip to Marseille has been put into sharp focus by new Opta projections, giving a clear picture of what’s required in France. Opta Analyst rates our chances of winning on Wednesday at 48.4%, with Marseille at 27.5% and a draw at 24.1%.

Those figures are significant because even a single point at the Stade Vélodrome would virtually secure our position in the European league phase. Despite the intimidating atmosphere, Opta’s simulations suggest we are well placed to come away with something.

A draw from our final two fixtures is enough to confirm a place in the Champions League knockout play-off round, with Qarabag still to visit Anfield. That makes Marseille the prime opportunity to relieve pressure ahead of the final matchday.

Victory in France would also greatly enhance our chances of breaking into the top eight, which brings automatic qualification to the round of 16. Opta currently puts our probability of doing so at 60.7%, even though we sit ninth after six games.

That outlook is based on performance rather than table position. We’ve collected 12 points from six matches, matching the tallies of Inter and Real Madrid, and are only outside the automatic spots on goal difference.

There’s also a striking historical angle: neither Liverpool nor Marseille has drawn a Champions League game across a combined 57 matches – the longest such streaks in the competition. It’s a stat that highlights just how decisive this encounter could be.

Our current standing leaves us in control of our own fate. Jamie Carragher recently pointed out that Arne Slot is using Europe as the next benchmark following last season’s Premier League success. That thinking is reflected in a squad built for intense European nights.

Marseille is the next true test.

The numbers say we are favourites.

What we do with that edge is up to us.