Opta cautions that Liverpool may face difficulties at Elland Road following their shaky draw with Sunderland.

 

 

Liverpool head to Elland Road today determined to rediscover the level of performance that carried them to the Premier League title last season.

The Reds endured another difficult outing in midweek, relying on a late Sunderland own goal—deflecting Florian Wirtz’s effort off Nordi Mukiele—to salvage a 1-1 draw.

Ahead of Leeds vs Liverpool, Opta analyst Joel Sritharan has broken down the data, indicating that although Liverpool remain favourites, the contest is far from simple. The Opta supercomputer rates Liverpool’s chances of victory at 55.8%, with Leeds at 22.1% and a 22% likelihood of a draw.

Liverpool are unbeaten in their last six league trips to Elland Road (W4, D2), a run that includes the 6-1 rout in April 2023.

However, recent away form has been inconsistent, with seven defeats in the last 11 on the road, exposing weaknesses Leeds may look to take advantage of.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin could pose the biggest threat for Leeds, having scored against both Manchester City and Chelsea earlier in the week.

Given Leeds’ habit of scoring early at home, Liverpool cannot afford to concede first; they’ve lost six of seven league matches this season after falling behind.

That heightens the importance of Mo Salah, the side’s leading creator with 28 chances fashioned so far, supported by Florian Wirtz, who gained confidence from his deflected strike at Sunderland.

Wirtz’s sharpness could be crucial in unlocking Leeds’ defence, while Liverpool received a boost pre-match with Joe Gomez and Conor Bradley both declared fit, offering Arne Slot valuable rotation options. Leeds, meanwhile, have concerns of their own—Daniel James and Sean Longstaff are out, and Lukas Nmecha alongside Calvert-Lewin face late fitness checks, according to Daniel Farke.

The Leeds boss admits his squad is stretched after three demanding fixtures in seven days against top-four opponents.

Liverpool must dictate the tempo, control the ball, and take advantage of any gaps created by fatigue in the Leeds ranks.

Although the historical trends favour Liverpool, recent inconsistency suggests this could be a challenging encounter.

With a Champions League clash at Inter Milan looming, it’s crucial for the Reds to regain momentum. A disciplined display from Arne Slot and his players will be essential to avoid another disappointing result away from home.